Fragile contexts, such as Mali, face compounded risks from conflict, climate, socioeconomic, health, and environmental hazards which affect communities profoundly. Addressing these challenges requires innovative solutions that are both proactive and locally driven. To support this, World Vision and Insecurity Insight have developed tools to monitor these intersecting risks to address the impacts. These tools not only track climate- and conflict-induced risks but also generate actionable recommendations to inform anticipatory action, enabling faster and more adaptive responses to emerging threats. However, the success of anticipatory action depends not only on global monitoringsystems but also on empowering local actors and systems to anticipate, prevent,and respond to shocks. Strengthening global capacity to respond to changingcontexts is valuable, but systems that fail to build the capacities ofgovernments, local actors, and communities risk fostering dependency onexternal support—undermining sustainable development.

To operationalize anticipatory action in fragile contexts, a shift in both practice and mindset is required. Beyond understanding context shifts, actors should embrace proactive, preventive planning over reactive responses. By combining innovative tools with strengthened local capacities, anticipatory action can become a cornerstone of resilience-building in fragile settings like Mali. Furthermore, it can also function as a conflict prevention tool, proactively addressing the risks and triggers that contribute to fragility and instability by addressing adverse impacts early.

Objectives:

1. Describe the development of the Multi-Hazard Context Monitoring System (MHCM) and its integration with anticipatory action across nine area programs in Mali.
2. Describethe anticipatory mindset and its use for multi-hazard context monitoringand addressing the impact of conflict on food security systems inMali.
3. Demonstratethe tools in real time, highlighting their value in decision-makingthrough actionable recommendations and the initiation of anticipatoryaction.
4. Discuss the critical role of local actors in ensuring MHCM systems andanticipatory action protect sustained development gains and reducereliance on humanitarian aid.
5. Explore how MHCM systems that shift from a response-oriented approach to one thatis preventive and transformative can also serve as a conflict preventiontool.