The world is witnessing an alarming rise in the frequency and intensity of conflicts, many of which are deeply entrenched and devastating for civilian populations. As conflicts increasingly impact lives and livelihoods, calling into question contemporary means of advancing peace, the need for innovative approaches to conflict anticipation and prevention has never been more urgent, reinforced by the UN Secretary General in Our Common Agenda and adopted by world leaders in the Pact for the Future. This session will focus on the growing humanitarian needs driven by conflict, and the critical role that anticipatory action can play in mitigating the devastating impact of violence on vulnerable populations.

This debate will explore the feasibility and challenges of conflict early warning and anticipatory action, highlighting key initiatives such as theAnticipatory Humanitarian Action for Displacement (AHEAD)programme, led by the Danish Refugee Council, and the newNavigating Fragility, Conflict, and Violence to Strengthen Community Resilienceguidance developed by the Red Cross Climate Centre. These programs represent innovative steps toward building a more proactive, prevention-focused approach to conflict management and resilience.

The session will consider why investing in anticipation of the impacts of fragility, conflict and violence is critical for reducing human suffering, strengthening resilience, and preventing the escalation of preventable crises. Proponents will argue that timely anticipatory action, built on robust multi-hazard early warning systems and comprehensive risk analysis, has the potential to advance peace, enhance community preparedness, and build resilience.

However, the session will also explore the counterarguments, emphasizing the dilemmas inherent to engaging in conflict early warning and anticipatory action. Concerns include the potential for unintended consequences, such as the escalation of tensions due to premature intervention or the politicization of conflict responses. The ethics of intervening based on predictions, rather than concrete developments, will also be debated. Moreover, the practical challenges of implementing anticipatory action in volatile contexts - where access to reliable data and political sensitivities often pose significant barriers - will be critically examined.

This session will bring together experts from the peacebuilding and humanitarian sectors to debate the complexities of conflict anticipation. Participants will gain a deeper understanding of both the potential rewards and the inherent risks of anticipatory action, and how these strategies can be refined to better prevent and manage conflict in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.