Climate change is increasingly acting as a crisis multiplier in fragile contexts. Droughts, floods, and heat don’t just damage assets; they also disrupt markets and essential systems: supply chains break, prices spike, services fail (water, energy, health), and livelihoods erode,

increasing stress on households and sometimes driving displacement and risky coping strategies. In places already affected by conflict, weak governance, or limited infrastructure, these shocks compound quickly, often hitting the most vulnerable and marginalised first.

At the same time, markets are not only part of the problem; they are also a key part of the solution. Climate-smart, conflict-sensitive market-based programming an help households maintain access to essentials, support local service delivery, and strengthen resilience, if we design and manage programmes with climate risk in mind throughout the programme cycle, and monitor outcomes and market signals so we can learn and adjust as conditions evolve.