Ukraine 2026 Scenarios

Purpose

To provide humanitarian responders with an interactive, forward-looking analysis of potential developments in Ukraine through December 2026. The session will walk participants through ACAPS’ scenario-building methodology in Ukraine, illustrating how key assumptions are developed, how uncertainties are prioritised, and how expert inputs from our workshops are triangulated to identify likely humanitarian and operational impacts. The presentation will also share emerging signals and contextual insights not yet available in the published scenario report.

Expected outcomes

• Participants gain a deeper understanding of how scenario analysis can strengthen contingency planning and preparedness.
• Participants become familiar with the analytical process behind ACAPS’ Ukraine scenarios, including the logic chains driving projected needs and operational constraints.
• Participants leave with practical takeaways they can adapt to their own country-level or organisational forecasting processes.

Target audience

• Humanitarian analysts, technical advisers, and information management staff engaged in planning or strategic decision-making.
• UN and INGO coordination leads, cluster coordinators, donor representatives, and operational managers working in or on Ukraine.
• Organisations interested in strengthening their use of scenario-building for preparedness and risk analysis.